Four teams, one trophy: What could decide the World Cup semifinals
Spain want the ball, France want the space, Argentina trust their nerve and England keep finding a way back. Only two can reach the final.
The World Cup is down to four familiar heavyweights, but they have arrived here in very different ways. France meet Spain on July 14. A day later, Argentina face England.
Spain: Control is their comfort zone
Why they can win: With Rodri setting the rhythm, Spain can keep the ball for long stretches and squeeze opponents with a sharp counter-press. They went five straight games without conceding before Belgium finally broke through.
Where they can be hurt: All that control does not always lead to enough clear chances. Belgium stayed alive until the closing minutes, and Spain still lack the kind of penalty-box finisher who turns half a chance into a goal.
Who has stepped up: Lamine Yamal keeps pulling defenders toward the right touchline. Mikel Oyarzabal has brought goals, while Mikel Merino has become the man for late moments — including the winner against Belgium. Rodri is still the player who makes everything feel calm.
Spain reached the semifinal with a 2-1 win over Belgium.
France: One burst can change everything
Why they can win: France do not need to dominate every minute. They can wait, defend space and then explode forward. Kylian Mbappé has eight goals and three assists, and their quick centre-backs give the rest of the team freedom to attack.
Where they can be hurt: When both wingers stay high, the midfield can open up. France have also had spells when they protect a lead too early and invite pressure they do not need.
Who has stepped up: Mbappé is the obvious danger, especially when he can run behind a high line. Ousmane Dembélé can unsettle a defence on either side, while William Saliba has been the steady figure at the back.
France booked their place with a convincing 2-0 win over Morocco.
Argentina: They are comfortable in the chaos
Why they can win: Argentina have lived through almost every kind of knockout night. They know when to slow a game down, when to fight and when to add another attacker. That experience matters when legs get heavy and the match becomes emotional.
Where they can be hurt: The holders have made life difficult for themselves. Even against 10-man Switzerland, they needed extra time. Their passing can become slow when opponents close the middle and wait for Messi.
Who has stepped up: Lionel Messi is level with Mbappé on eight goals. Julián Álvarez produced the breakthrough against Switzerland, Lautaro Martínez finished the job and Emiliano Martínez continues to give the team confidence in tense moments.
Argentina eventually beat Switzerland 3-1 after extra time.
England: They keep answering the pressure
Why they can win: England have power, height and players who enjoy the biggest moments. Jude Bellingham can drive through midfield, while Harry Kane can score, drop deep and bring runners into the game.
Where they can be hurt: They have been slow out of the blocks. Congo DR led them until the 75th minute, and Norway scored first in the quarterfinal. Against Argentina, another hesitant start could be costly.
Who has stepped up: Bellingham scored twice in the comeback against Norway and now has six goals. Kane also has six. Bukayo Saka gives England width, and Declan Rice will have the difficult job of protecting the spaces Messi likes to use.
England came from behind to beat Norway 2-1.
Two very different semifinals
France vs Spain: Spain will try to keep France away from the ball. France will wait for the moment Spain's full-backs leave space behind them. Rodri's ability to stop those breaks could decide the match.
Argentina vs England: England have younger legs and more aerial power. Argentina have deeper knockout experience and Messi between the lines. The midfield contest around Bellingham, Rice and Argentina's central players should tell us who controls the night.
Four questions before kickoff
- Can Spain keep Mbappé away from open space?
- Can Argentina give Messi freedom without losing the midfield?
- Can Bellingham or Kane catch Golden Boot leaders Messi and Mbappé?
- Will France stay balanced when Spain overload the wings?
Sources: FIFA tournament schedule, AP: Argentina 3-1 Switzerland, AP: England 2-1 Norway, AP: Spain 2-1 Belgium, FIFA: France 2-0 Morocco.